Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Barriers in the Selection Process

A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an offensive online group.