Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Drop 37% Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The average figure of daily murders per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent administrative data. However, security analysts have warned that murder figures could fail to signal better national stability.

Significant Drop in Daily Averages

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had over these months is remarkably important,” the President said, explaining that in November the lowest amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Plan

Fierce cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than four times higher than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main pillars of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government departments.

Expert Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to draw a conclusion of peace was problematic. This is notably true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it might mask days when there were notably high levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average renders surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the nation to show their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst remarked.